Christie game changer?

That’s it. Unless there is a game changer, Chris Christie will win the GOP nomination. Steve Lonegan’s swashbuckling dark horse candidacy is likely coming to an end on June 2, not long after the polls close.

We stand by our claims that this race is closer than recent public polls reflect; nevertheless, we concur that Christie will win. He should win by about 7-10 points.

Lonegan will have significant support amongst the largest block of voters, self-identified conservatives, but his support will not be significant enough to pull him through.

In the last three weeks, Christie’s campaign corrected its messaging problem while successfully attacking Lonegan’s Flat Tax proposal. With its messaging righted, the Christie campaign spent significant money in the mailbox, on cable and even on broadcast and his attack worked. For his part, Christie addressed the issues of taxes and the economy in credible ways that conservatives understood and respected without alienating his supporters.

Christie touched on quite a few traditional conservative issues in a way that will likely help his campaign pick up undeclareds and disaffected Democrats voters.

The last three weeks of Christie’s advertising was greatly improved. It was sharper and harder hitting.

We thought the early ads were not up to par with the typical front running challenger in a statewide election. We were starting to wonder if college kids had been in charge of the advertising. The mail was too wordy, and the narrative wasn’t memorable. There wasn’t enough active voice. One mail piece featured action footage of Christie’s blurred hands. What the rest of the mailer was about, we don’t remember.

But we digress, the new mail is excellent. In fact, we believe that this mailer: Front and
Back, sealed the deal for Christie.

The Christie campaign handled the issue very well because while the question is about illegal immigration, yet the mailer didn’t frame as such. The issue here is credibility and this piece just destroyed Lonegan’s.

Lonegan’s credibility has always been questioned throughout his entire time in the public eye. Prone to making controversial statements and predictions, Lonegan has delivered on just enough to make people believe he can succeed.

Unfortunately for Lonegan, the facts caught up to him. The bomb-thrower, lobbing grenades at everyone else now has nothing to say.

Lonegan has relentlessly opposed illegal immigration and doing so has garnered him a great deal of notoriety. Using excerpts from news articles, the mailer dismantles Lonegan by highlighting that he clearly did hire two immigrants “whom authorities say were in the U.S. illegally,” as the Associated Press reported in an excerpt used by the Christie campaign.

The mailer then shows Lonegan’s answers, which a re terrible. Lonegan’s responses read like those of someone caught red-handed engaging in hypocrisy. The Star Ledger, quote “I will hire anybody I want,” left Lonegan with no wiggle room. Lights out. The proverbial hand in the cookie jar.

What undecided GOPer could view Lonegan as credible (or viable, for that matter) after reading this postcard in the mail?

This was a great piece that hit at the right time. Don’t let anyone tell you that mail doesn’t matter anymore. Good mail can make or break a campaign. Good mailers are game changers and this was a big game changer.

To pull this race out, Lonegan needs a pretty big counter-punch, but he is quickly running out of time and money.

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