The secret about those polling numbers (part III)

Those who doubt what we are saying about public polls having an issue with accuracy need only read Quinnipiac University’s own release on today’s poll results.

The Q’pac Polling Institute Assistant Director Clay F. Richards admits he isn’t too confident in the poll’s accuracy. Consider the following statement from Richards in today’s release:

“No one knows who will turn out in a New Jersey Republican primary so anything can happen, but all signs point to a Christie victory. Most of Lonegan’s strength comes from conservative GOP voters, with Christie scoring heavily among those who say they are moderate and liberal Republicans.”

UUUHHHHHH come again? Mr. Richards, your poll shows Christie with a commanding 23% lead, running six points over 50%! Uhh so shouldn’t you be saying this race looks like it is over?

Again since no one else around here knows WTF they are talking about, we will spell it out for those of you following along at home.

Polls cannot be accurate without considering voter behavior. There is no information on how many 4/4 primary voters are in the sample. We don’t know how many 3/4 primary voters were included either for that matter.

For those of you who don’t follow what we are saying, 4/4 primary voters are the voters that have voted in all four of the last four primaries. Better yet, how many perfect voters are included in the polls. For those of you following at home, perfect voters are those who have never missed a primary.

Perfect and near perfect voters in a GOP primary are overwhelmingly conservative. Generally these voters break 2-1 toward conservatives, much like those who identify themselves as undecided at this point in the polling. On Election Day voters from this category will make up about 65% of those who actually vote.

Mr. Richards by polling registered voters you are not providing an accurate picture of the GOP primary electorate. You said it yourself, Lonegan is winning conservative GOPers. Ok well if he is ahead with the group that makes up nearly 2/3s of primary voters, how can you be confident that Lonegan is down 23 points?

Oh yeah, you can’t be confident. You said it yourself.

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